After "October", domestic steel prices continued to bottom out, and still did not stop the trend of sharp decline before the holiday. Compared with the historical high in early June, domestic steel prices have fallen by more than 1,000 yuan, a drop of more than 20%, which has greatly exceeded market expectations. And more worries are beginning to surface: when domestic steel prices are falling due to falling domestic demand, falling raw and fuel costs, and falling international steel prices, when will there be a turnaround? Will domestic steel mills take measures to reduce production and insure prices work? , Is also a question. Analysts believe that for the fourth quarter, the performance of the steel industry is difficult to be optimistic.

　　Worries about declining demand and overcapacity

　　On October 6, the steel market in Beijing collectively "dipped", with an average drop of 100 yuan/ton. The atmosphere of panic continued to spread after "October". Steel mills and traders seem to be very confused. Is there a bottom line for the price of steel that has fallen by RMB 1,000 per ton and a drop of more than 20%? A more pessimistic view is that overcapacity in the steel industry has risen. In the upstream and downstream industrial chain, why is the steel industry that has always had the right to determine prices so vulnerable to a blow? Who defeated the steel industry?

　　The words of a macroeconomist are concise and concise. As the macro economy declines and demand declines, the steel industry will perform first. As long as this turning point appears, the entire process will last for one year or even longer. The mid-term adjustment of the steel industry has come. In terms of demand, since the second half of the year, the growth rate of most downstream steel industries, including real estate, machinery, automobiles, and home appliances, has slowed down, the industry's prosperity has declined, and corporate profits have fallen sharply. Statistics show that China's Manufacturing Purchasing Index (PMI) has fallen below 50% for two consecutive months, at 48.4%; the national housing boom index has continued to fall.

　　United Metal Network analyst Zhang Ping believes that the performance of the steel industry in the fourth quarter will not improve, and steel prices will hardly recover.

　　And "My Steel" information researcher Xu Xiangchun believes that in the current steel industry, it is too early to say that there is overcapacity, and the shutdown of a large number of private steel mills is also alleviating the pressure of "overcapacity." However, the macroeconomic situation is difficult to make the steel industry raging. The decline in domestic demand gave rise to steel prices that had been rising in the first half of the year.

　　At present, domestic steel stocks are still rising, and the stock pressure on steel mills and traders is very heavy. Take construction steel as an example. In September, the Shanghai steel market inventory, the rebar was 286,700 tons, and the wire rod was 84,800 tons, compared with 220,700 tons and 60,800 tons in the same period last year, with year-on-year increases of 29.9% and 39.47%; in the Guangzhou market, rebar Inventory was 216,000 tons and wire rod was 127,000 tons, compared with 161,000 tons and 70,000 tons in the same period last year, with year-on-year growth rates of 34% and 81%.

　　China Business Network analyst Ma Zhongpu believes that domestic steel production capacity has already appeared "surplus". However, the projects put into production this year are mainly concentrated in hot rolling projects. The pressure of concentrated release of production capacity is not great.

　　Raw and fuel downward steel prices are difficult to find bottom

　　When domestic steel prices continue to fall and steel mills are out of breath, steel prices pushed up by costs begin to show a reverse movement. The domestic iron ore price has fallen from 1,800 yuan/ton to around 1,000 yuan/ton. Xu Xiangchun believes that this will exacerbate the risk of falling steel prices. In fact, it has become a vicious circle: falling demand-steel prices falling-production cuts-raw and fuel prices falling-steel prices falling.

　　Last week, the overall domestic iron concentrate market was in a sluggish operation. The quotations of iron concentrates in some areas dropped sharply, and the transaction situation did not improve significantly. The price of refined iron powder (66% dry basis including tax) in Tangshan area was 1,050 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan from last week. In the current sluggish market environment, the iron ore market is unbalanced between supply and demand, and the future trend is not optimistic. The mainstream price of 63.5% of Indian fines was 930-960 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan from last week.

　　In the cost of imported iron ore, ocean freight, which once accounted for more than 50%, has also seen an "avalanche".

　　United Metals tracking data shows that the sea freight from Brazil, Western Australia to China has fallen sharply. On October 3, the sea freight of the Brazil route was US$31.34/ton, and the high point this year was US$108/ton, a decrease of more than 70%; while the sea freight of the Australia route dropped to US$11.823/ton, which was a high of US$50/ton this year. , A drop of more than 70%. Analysts believe that international iron ore prices will soon be inverted with spot ore prices. The possible oversupply of iron ore in 2009 will also increase the downward pressure on iron ore prices. This also adds to the downside uncertainty of steel prices.

　　The price of coke, which accounts for about 20% of the cost in the steel industry, has also fallen. Market participants said that the domestic coke market is still operating in a sluggish situation, coke transactions in various markets are not active, and prices continue to fall. The coke, which once climbed as high as 3,000 yuan/ton, has now fallen sharply. At present, the ex-factory price of coking enterprises in Hebei is 2400-2500 yuan/ton, the purchase price of iron and steel enterprises in Handan is basically 2400-2500 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of most iron and steel enterprises in Tangshan is set at 2500 yuan/ton, the lowest price Close to the level of 2,000 yuan/ton. Market transactions are generally light.

　　International steel prices fall, "making things worse"

　　With the continuous decline of domestic steel prices, China's steel exports ushered in a spurt of export growth in July and August. Exports exceeded 7 million tons for two consecutive months. However, more market participants are not optimistic about the export of Chinese steel products in the later period. In September and October, overseas orders from domestic steel mills have dropped significantly. As the international steel prices have fallen, for the domestic steel market, it is no longer feasible to release the downward pressure on steel prices through exports.

　　According to the data obtained by relevant departments, the CRU steel price index peaked at 291.4 points in mid-July, and has now fallen back to 250.6 points. Among them, the highest flat product index is 271.4 points, and the current is 237.5 points; the highest long product index is 331.6 points, and the current is 276.8 points. International steel prices have fallen by more than 15%.

　　Ma Zhongpu believes that with the intensification of financial turmoil in the United States and the slowdown of economic growth in the European Union and Japan, the international steel market will face greater challenges in the future, and the market outlook is not optimistic. This will directly lead to a decline in the export volume of domestic manufacturers and increase the domestic market. Supply pressure. This is also the main reason why domestic steel exports have continuously exceeded 7 million tons, and the steel export tax rebate policy has not been introduced. In September, the domestic steel export data will fall sharply.